The Saudi-Iranian Rapprochement won’t resolve conflicts in the region

08-06-2023

Sarah Villegas

Middle East and Human Rights Researcher,

Global Human Rights Defence

On March 10, Iran and Saudi Arabia signed in Beijing a China-brokered agreement, restoring relationships between both states. Seven years after Saudi Arabia closed its embassy in Tehran, following the execution of a Shia religious leader by the Sunni-majority kingdom, it decided to reopen the embassy. [1] This rapprochement is already affecting the region to some extent, but it won’t drastically shift the current state of affairs. Saudi Arabia, the leading Sunni Muslim power, and Iran, the largest Shia Muslim country, have been locked in a struggle for regional dominance for decades. Recently, their rivalry has been exacerbated and best demonstrated in proxy wars across the Middle East.

In Yemen, Saudi Arabia has been backing pro-government forces in their war against the Houthi rebel movement since 2015. In opposition, Iran has denied that it is smuggling weapons to the Houthis, who have carried out missile and drone attacks on Saudi cities and oil infrastructure. [2] Despite the agreement, Iran is not ready to offer real concessions, in particular on its alleged supply of advanced weapons to the Huthis. More importantly, a unilateral Saudi deal with the Huthis, while positive in itself, would not end the war, as it would exclude an array of political and military actors aligned with what remains of Yemen’s internationally recognised government. [3]

In Iraq, Saudi Arabia has also accused Iran of interfering where Iranian-backed Shia militias have benefited from vast military and political influence, of attacking cargo and oil tankers in the Gulf, and of being behind a missile and drone strike in 2019 on major Saudi oil installations. However, Iran has denied involvement in the attacks on the ships and oil facilities. [4] Assuming that the restoration of diplomatic relations between both states will put an end to interference in domestic politics in the proxy wars would be an illusion. Moreover, increased coordination and potential investment in Iraq by Saudi Arabia would only benefit the ruling elite and strengthen their grip on power, further fuelling already widespread popular anger at the political level.

In Lebanon, both powers support opposing groups in the country. Hezbollah represents Iran’s regional influence while Saudi Arabia partially supports the other camp. [5] Both sides of the divide have mixed feelings about the Saudi-Iranian deal, for example, Hezbollah sees this move as the end of Iran’s international isolation and Saudi Arabia’s apparently unshakable alignment with US policies. [6] Eventually, one should assess this rapprochement with meticulous attention while not having high expectations about the peace resolution processes it would initiate in the region. In any case, it contributes to the stability of the region and sheds light on the rising mediator role that China could play in other conflicts in the region, such as the Israeli-Palestinian one.

Sources and further readings:

[1] AlJazeera. ‘Iran to reopen embassy in Saudi Arabia after seven years.’ (5 June 2023). <https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/5/iran-to-reopen-embassy-in-saudi-arabia-after-seven-year> accessed 8 June 2023.

[2] BBC. ‘Iran hails ‘new era’ as embassy reopens in Saudi Arabia.’ (7 June 2023). <https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-65826590> accessed 8 June 2023.

[3] International Crisis Group. ‘The Impact of the Saudi-Iranian Rapprochement on Middle East Conflicts” (19 April 2023). <https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iran-saudi-arabia/impact-saudi-iranian> accessed 8 June 2023.

[4] Financial Times. ‘As the world swirls, Saudi Arabia repositions itself as a global linchpin.’ (7 June 2023). <https://www.ft.com/content/92ab1aaa-bc8e-46c2-ab43-4a1b3fa6325d> accessed 8 June 2023.

[5] Middle East Eye. ‘Will stalled nuclear talks threaten Gulf-Iran détente?’ (8 June 2023). <https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/gulf-iran-detente-stalled-nuclear-talks-threaten-will> accessed 8 June 2023.[6] AlArabiya News. ‘Hezbollah leader says Saudi-Iran reconciliation is ‘good development’’ (11 March 2023). <https://english.alarabiya.net/News/saudi-arabia/2023/03/10/Hezbollah-leader-says-Saudi-Iran-reconciliation-is-good-development-> accessed 8 June 2023.