Sudan: Analyst Maps Out the Three Scenarios That Could Materialize Following the 25 October Coup
GHRTV Reporter
13-12-2021
Cătălina Gemănari
Africa and Human Rights Researcher,
Global Human Rights Defence.
Sudanese analyst says that following the coup d’état which took place on 25 October 2021, there seem to be three scenarios for Sudan. The coup on 25 October and the political agreement concluded between Gen El Burhan and PM Abdullah Hamdok have led to a conflicting situation in the country. Dr. Suliman Baldo, an US-based Sudanese analyst of African affairs, specialised in conflict areas, says that Sudan has three main options: continuation of the military rule, a restoration of the transition led by civilians, and the worst case scenario, a collapse of the state. A continuation of the military rule would mean the advancement of an authoritarian, oppressive and violent system. A civilian transition entails rejecting all unilateral decisions made by the military and enforcing their own decisions. The analyst considered this scenario the least realistic. The collapse of the state is also likely to not take place thanks to the mediation and initiatives skills that the Sudanese people possess.
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