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A couple of ships that are in the water by Sorato Suzuki via Unsplash July 13, 2024
Ukraine and Russia, with U.S.-mediated facilitation, reached a ceasefire agreement on March 25th, 2025 to halt military force in the Black Sea, ensuring navigational security and preventing the use of commercial vessels for military purposes.
Following three days of peace talks on March 25th, the White House announced the conclusion of an agreement between Ukraine and Russia regarding a naval ceasefire to halt military activities in the Black Sea. The accord aims to eliminate the use of force, enhance navigational security, and prevent the utilisation of commercial vessels for military purposes. The consultations, held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, took place without direct meetings between the parties, relying instead on bilateral facilitation mediated by the United States. This development marks a pivotal moment in the conflict that began in February 2022, as it represents the first significant indication from both parties of a willingness to implement a ceasefire. However, the extent to which this agreement will translate into a gradual de-escalation largely depends on the reactions it provokes and the course of action chosen by the involved actors. While the agreement opens the door to dialogue, it is not without complications.
First and foremost, the implementation and enforcement of the agreement were immediately called into question. On one hand, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that it would take effect the same day. On the other hand, The Kremlin, set conditions for its enforcement—specifically, the lifting of Western sanctions on Russian banks linked to the SWIFT payment system, which are involved in international trade of food and fertilisers. This led to a sharp response from Zelenskyy, who accused Russia of misrepresenting the terms negotiated with American mediators.
The limitations of the agreement are evident, as it does not fully clarify the cessation of bombings on infrastructure. From Ukraine’s perspective, as highlighted in an article by the Kyiv Independent, despite the White House praising the deal, it does not provide the security guarantees Ukraine requires—particularly regarding the protection of its ports from Russian drone and missile attacks, as well as the reopening of the blockaded Mykolaiv port, according to Serhiy Vovk, Director of the Centre for Transportation Strategies. It is therefore clear that ensuring the maintenance of this ceasefire is crucial. While the agreement may not be decisive from a military standpoint, it holds significant symbolic value politically and economically. Most importantly, from a diplomatic perspective, it represents a first step toward establishing a constructive dialogue.
Sources and Further Readings:
Benjamin Jensen, Mark Montgomery. (2025, March 31). How to secure the Black Sea during the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. CSIS. Retrieved April 2, 2025 from https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-secure-black-sea-during-russia-ukrainian-ceasefire
Constant Méheut and Ivan Nechepurenko (2025, March 25). Russia and Ukraine reach deal on Black Sea ceasefire. The New York Times. Retrieved March 31, 2025 from https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/25/world/europe/russia-ukraine-deal-black-sea.html
Dominic Culverwell. (2025, March 25). ‘Not what Ukraine needs’: Black Sea ceasefire favors Russia more than Ukraine, say experts. The Kyiv Independent. Retrieved April 1, 2025 from https://kyivindependent.com/not-what-ukraine-needs-black-sea-ceasefire-favors-russia-more-than-ukraine-say-experts/
Kremlin. (2025, March 25). President Putin’s statement on the Russia-Ukraine Black Sea ceasefire agreement. Kremlin. Retrieved April 1, 2025 from http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/76526
Martin Fornusek and Chris York (2025, March 26). As Ukraine, Russia agree to ceasefire at sea, Russia’s battered Black Sea fleet is set to get a relief. The Kyiv Independent. Retrieved March 31, 2025 from https://kyivindependent.com/as-ukraine-russia-agree-to-ceasefire-at-sea-russias-battered-black-sea-fleet-is-set-to-get-a-relieve/
Sarah Shamim. (2025, March 26). Russia-Ukraine Black Sea deal: What is it and will it work? Al Jazeera. Retrieved April 1, 2025 from https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/26/russia-ukraine-black-sea-deal-what-is-it-and-will-it-work.
The White House. (2025, March 25). Outcomes of the United States and Ukraine expert groups on the Black Sea. The White House. Retrieved April 1, 2025 from https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/03/outcomes-of-the-united-states-and-ukraine-expert-groups-on-the-black-sea/
Tom Joyner. (2025, March 25). Live updates: Russia and Ukraine reach Black Sea ceasefire agreement. BBC News. Retrieved March 31, 2025 from https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c4g7w7521w0t
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