Nagorno-Karabakh: From Armed Conflict to Refugee Exodus

03-10-2023

Andrej Confalonieri

Middle East and Human Rights Researcher

Global Human Rights Defence

Nagorno-Karabakh, a historically significant region once located at the crossroads of the Russian, Persian, and Ottoman empires, is now part of the South Caucasus. Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, it comprises independent states of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. In 1918, a decision was made between Armenians and Azerbaijanis that Nagorno-Karabakh should be part of Azerbaijan, despite the Armenian population being the majority in the region. This decision was confirmed at the 1920 Paris Peace Conference. [1] The area then came under Soviet control the following year. [2] 

The modern conflict began in 1988 when Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians, with support from the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic, sought secession from the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic. Initial confrontations between Armenian and Azerbaijani military forces began even before the dissolution of the Soviet Union, but they escalated into a full-scale war after the fall of the latter state. [3] The conflict had catastrophic consequences, including over 30,000 deaths, [4] with at least 13,000 battle fatalities. [5] It resulted in a million displaced Azerbaijanis, the occupation of a fifth of Azerbaijani territories by Armenia, and the displacement of up to 400,000 Armenians. [6] The Bishkek Ceasefire Agreement [7] has been in place since 1994, but intermittent hostilities have persisted, such as the 2016 “Four-Day War” [8] and the six-week Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, which saw the death of more than 7,000 individuals. [9] After the 2020 war, Azerbaijan regained a significant portion of the territory it had lost more than 20 years earlier, resulting in Armenia retaining only a fraction of Karabakh. [10]

On Tuesday 19 September 2023, Azerbaijan launched an offensive to reclaim the remaining territory held by the Nagorno-Karabakh Armenian separatists, effectively restituting sovereignty over the region, where 120,000 ethnic Armenians resided. [11] This military operation forced the Armenians to flee the area. Armenia, emphasising its lack of military presence in Nagorno-Karabakh, requested the deployment of Russian peacekeeping forces on the field and sought assistance from the United Nations Security Council. [12] The United Nations (“the UN”) responded by dispatching its first mission in the region in approximately three decades. Led by a senior UN aid official, this mission arrived on Sunday 1 October 2023, with a primary focus on humanitarian needs, as stated by a spokesperson for the Azerbaijani presidency. [13]

While the offensive has led to Azerbaijan gaining full control over the region, a new humanitarian concern has emerged: the fate of the ethnic Armenians who fled Nagorno-Karabakh. Following the offensive, nearly every ethnic Armenian resident left the area. For example, by Saturday 30 September 2023, more than 100,000 individuals had fled the region, with this number steadily increasing in the subsequent days. Many of them waited for days to cross the Hakari Bridge, which connects Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia. [14] This mass exodus has left Nagorno-Karabakh resembling a “ghost town with no soul”. [15] Consequently, all former residents of the region sought refuge in Armenia, a country with fewer than 3 million inhabitants. Armenia now grapples with the challenge of accommodating over 100,000 displaced individuals, including children, women, and the elderly. In essence, the events in Nagorno-Karabakh have ignited a refugee flow that the UN Refugee Agency (“the UNHCR”) is “increasingly concerned” about. [16] The UNHCR has dispatched 16 trucks to Armenia and has called for donations to facilitate the delivery of life-saving assistance, but it remains to be seen how the international community will address this unfolding refugee flow.

Sources and further reading

[1] Kamal Makili-Aliyev, Contested Territories and International Law: A Comparative Study of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict and the Aland Islands Precedent (Routledge 2019) p. 2-3.

[2] Ibid.

[3] Ibid, p. 4.

[4] Mansur Mirovalev, ‘Is the Armenia-Azerbaijan fight for Nagorno-Karabakh finally over?’ (Al Jazeera, 28 September 2023) <https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/28/is-the-armenia-azerbaijan-fight-for-nagorno-karabakh-finally-over?traffic_source=KeepReading> accessed 04 October 2023.

[5] Statista, ‘Estimated number of battle fatalities in Nagorno-Karabakh from 1991 to 2022’ (29 September 2023) <Nagorno-Karabakh fatalities 2022 | Statista>  accessed 4 October 2023.

[6] Makili-Aliyev (n 1), p. 4.

[7] See the unofficial translation by the University of Edinburgh of the Ceasefire Agreement: <Ceasefire Agreement Unofficial translation P. S. Grachev Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation A. V. Kozyrev Ministe> accessed 4 October 2023.

[8] Makili-Aliyev (n 1), p. 4-5.

[9] Statista (n 5).

[10]  Center for Preventive Action, ‘Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict’ (Global Conflict Tracker, 28 September 2023) <Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict | Global Conflict Tracker (cfr.org)> accessed 5 October 2023.

[11] Paul Kirby, ‘Azerbaijan halts Karabakh offensive after ceasefire deal with Armenian separatists’ (BBC News, 21 September 2023) <Azerbaijan halts Karabakh offensive after ceasefire deal with Armenian separatists - BBC News> accessed 4 October 2023.

[12] Andrew Osborn, ‘Azerbaijani forces strike Armenian-controlled Karabakh, raising risk of new Caucasus war’ (Reuters, 21 September 2023) <Azerbaijani forces strike Armenian-controlled Karabakh, raising risk of new Caucasus war | Reuters> accessed 4 October 2023.

[13] Al Jazeera, ‘UN team in Nagorno-Karabakh, a first in 30 years, as ethnic Armenians flee’ (1 October 2023) <UN team in Nagorno-Karabakh, a first in 30 years, as ethnic Armenians flee | Conflict News | Al Jazeera> accessed 4 October 2023.

[14] Al Jazeera, ‘Armenia says more than 100,000 people fled Nagorno-Karabakh’ ( 30 September 2023) <Armenia says more than 100,000 people fled Nagorno-Karabakh | Refugees News | Al Jazeera> accessed 4 October 2023.

[15] Al Jazeera (n 13).

[16] UNHCR, ‘UNHCR increasingly concerned for refugees fleeing Karabakh region’ (26 September 2023) <UNHCR increasingly concerned for refugees fleeing Karabakh region | UN News> accessed 4 October 2023.