Iraq’s Decade-Long Wait: A Detailed Look at the Landmark 2023 Elections with Special Reference to the Kurdish Parties in Kirkuk

21-12-2023

Andrej Confalonieri

Middle East and Human Rights Researcher

Global Human Rights Defence

On Monday, December 18th, 2023, the first elections in over a decade were held in 15 of 18 Iraqi provinces to elect 285 council members responsible for appointing powerful provincial governors and supervising local administration. [1] The three Kurdish provinces without elections are operated by a separate autonomous regime. [2] Despite widespread disillusionment due to corruption and a lack of progress, the vote represents a significant test for Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s government. Sudani, in power for over a year, has focused on rebuilding public services and infrastructure. The elections aim to gauge public satisfaction and test the success of the government’s economic policies, particularly in providing jobs. [3]

Despite internal competition among Shi’ite Muslim Coordination Framework (CF)-affiliated parties, they pledged to collaborate in governance post-election. Coordination Framework’s success in regions that were previously strongholds of their main rival, Shi’ite populist cleric Moqtada Sadr, and supporters of the 2019 anti-government protests illustrates their consolidation of power. [4] With only 41% of voters participating in the elections, including because Sadr called for an election boycott, the ruling Shi’ite alliance indeed emerged as the frontrunner in Baghdad and numerous southern provinces. This alliance, composed of various factions within the Coordination Framework, garnered substantial support despite Sadr’s election boycott. [5] The province of Basra saw a different outcome, as a list backed by a popular governor, Asaad al-Edani, secured a significant victory, surpassing all CF-supported lists combined. In Mosul, a Sunni Arab list backed by the former governor Najim al-Jabouri obtained the most votes. At the same time, in Anbar and Baghdad, the party of ousted parliament speaker Mohammed Halbousi attained the highest number of votes. [6] It is also important to note the result in Kirkuk, where the Kurdish party Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), aligned with the CF, emerged victorious. [7]

The Kurdish Parties in Kirkuk

Before the elections, Kurdish parties aspired to reclaim authority in Kirkuk. However, the fallout from the Kurdish forces’ withdrawal in 2017 left the Kurdish populace feeling betrayed. The PUK and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), previously dominant, faced widespread disillusionment, leading to significant losses in subsequent elections. [8] The installation of Rakan al-Jabouri, a Sunni politician, as Kirkuk’s non-Kurdish governor in 2017 stirred controversy. While some accuse him of reviving Arabisation policies aimed at undermining Kurdish presence, others commend his efforts to revitalise neglected Arab neighbourhoods. [9] 

The electoral campaigns have centred on removing Jabouri from office, with various parties, including the PUK and KDP, pledging to assume governance. However, Kurdish parties faced challenges due to recent amendments in Kirkuk’s election laws. These amendments aim to balance power distribution among the province’s ethnic components, irrespective of the majority vote outcome. [10] The voting method used, called Sainte-Laguë, led to wasted votes as most Kurdish parties competed independently because of the continued rivalry between the PUK, KDP, and other Kurdish parties. [11] For instance, in Kirkuk, despite high turnout, not all Kurdish parties secured enough votes for representation, resulting in over 53,000 votes going to waste. Similar scenarios unfolded in Nineveh, Diyala, and Salahaddin provinces, where fragmented Kurdish representation led to substantial wasted votes, undermining their potential council seats. [12]

Sources and further reading

[1] Ahmed Rasheed, Timour Azhari, ‘Iraq's ruling Shi'ite alliance leads in provincial elections -initial results’ (Reuters, 19 December 2023) <Iraq's ruling Shi'ite alliance leads in provincial elections - preliminary results | Nasdaq> accessed 21 December 2023; Agence France-Presse, ‘Iraqis Vote in First Provincial Elections in a Decade’ (VOA, 18 December 2023) <Iraqis Vote in First Provincial Elections in a Decade> accessed 21 December 2023.

[2] Agence-France Presse (n 1).

[3] Ibid. See also Firas Elias, ‘Local Elections in Iraq: Reality and Implications’ (CFRI, 15 December 2023) <Local Elections in Iraq: Reality and Implications> accessed 22 December 2023.

[4] Rasheed (n 1).

[5] Ibid. 

[6] Ibid. 

[7] Ibid. 

[8] Chenar Chalak, ‘What do Iraq’s provincial elections mean for Kirkuk’s Kurds?’ (Rudaw, 18 December 2023) <What do Iraq’s provincial elections mean for... | Rudaw.net> accessed 22 December 2023.

[9] Ibid. 

[10] Azhi Rasul, ‘Over 106,000 Kurdish votes wasted in Iraq’s provincial elections’ (Rudaw, 20 December 2023) <Over 106,000 Kurdish votes wasted in Iraq’s... | Rudaw.net> accessed 22 December 2023. 

[11] Ibid. 

[12] Ibid.