Iran’s 2024 Presidential Election: A Pivotal Victory for Reform and Its Impact on Iran’s Future Policies

18-07-2024

Masoumeh Rahimi

 Middle East and Human Rights Researcher

Global Human Rights Defence

Iran’s 2024 presidential election has captivated international observers and the Iranian populace alike, not only due to the unexpected death of President Ebrahim Raisi but also because of the political implications the election holds for the country’s future (Britannica, 2024). With the first round concluded and a runoff election finalised, the political landscape is being reshaped amidst low voter turnout and heightened public disillusionment (Britannica, 2024; NBC New York, 2024).

Key Candidates and Their Platforms

The initial election round featured a mix of hardline and reformist candidates (Atlantic Council, 2024). Among the notable figures were:

Saeed Jalili: A staunch hardliner and former Chief Nuclear Negotiator, Jalili is known for his uncompromising stance on Iran’s nuclear program and strong anti-Western rhetoric (Britannica, 2024; Worldview Stratfor, 2024). He has close ties to the Supreme Leader and has advocated for strict adherence to Islamic principles, national security, and resistance against Western influence (Britannica, 2024; Worldview Stratfor, 2024).

Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf: Another prominent hardliner, Ghalibaf has a long history in Iran’s military and political arenas, having served as the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Air Force and the Mayor of Tehran (Atlantic Council, 2024). Recently, he has been the Speaker of Parliament, known for his pragmatic conservatism and administrative efficiency (Atlantic Council, 2024).

Moustafa Pourmohammadi: A controversial figure, Pourmohammadi has faced allegations regarding his role in the 1988 prison massacres (Iran Primer, 2024). Despite this, he has held significant positions, including Minister of Justice under President Hassan Rouhani, and remains influential within Iran’s conservative circles (Iran Primer, 2024).

Masoud Pezeshkian: The primary reformist candidate, Pezeshkian is a veteran politician and a former Deputy Speaker of Parliament (Britannica, 2024; Iran Primer, 2024). His campaign has focused on economic reforms, reducing corruption, and improving civil liberties (Britannica, 2024; Iran Primer, 2024).

Election Dynamics and Low Turnout

The first round of the election, held on June 28, 2024, saw a voter turnout of approximately 40%, marking the lowest participation rate in the history of the Islamic Republic (Atlantic Council, 2024; NBC New York, 2024). This low turnout reflects widespread public disillusionment and skepticism regarding the efficacy of the electoral process (Atlantic Council, 2024; NBC New York, 2024).

In the first round, Pezeshkian secured 42.5% of the vote, while Jalili garnered 38.6% (Worldview Stratfor, 2024). These results led to a runoff election as neither candidate achieved the required majority to win outright (Worldview Stratfor, 2024).

Runoff Election Results

The runoff election, held on July 5, 2024, concluded with Masoud Pezeshkian winning the presidency, securing 52.7% of the vote compared to Jalili’s 47.3% (Al Jazeera, 2024). Pezeshkian’s victory marks a significant shift in Iran’s political landscape, representing a rare triumph for the reformist camp (Al Jazeera, 2024; NBC New York, 2024).

Pezeshkian’s Agenda and Future Implications

Masoud Pezeshkian’s presidency is anticipated to bring a wave of reforms aimed at addressing Iran’s pressing economic and social issues (Iran Primer, 2024). His campaign promises include:

Economic Reforms: Pezeshkian aims to tackle rampant inflation and unemployment by implementing market-friendly policies, attracting foreign investment, and reducing the country’s economic dependency on oil (Iran Primer, 2024). These reforms are crucial in a nation where economic instability has significantly affected the quality of life for ordinary citizens (Iran Primer, 2024; Britannica, 2024).

Anti-Corruption Measures: Vowing to combat corruption, Pezeshkian plans to introduce transparency in government operations and hold officials accountable for corrupt practices (Britannica, 2024). This commitment is seen as a necessary step to restore public trust in the government (Britannica, 2024; Al Jazeera, 2024).

Improvement of Civil Liberties: Pezeshkian has committed to enhancing civil liberties, including greater freedom of expression, loosening restrictions on the press, and promoting gender equality (Worldview Stratfor, 2024). Such reforms could pave the way for a more open and progressive society, addressing some of the core grievances of the population (Worldview Stratfor, 2024; Al Jazeera, 2024).

Diplomatic Engagement: On the international front, Pezeshkian seeks to rebuild diplomatic relations with Western countries, aiming for a more balanced foreign policy that could lead to the easing of economic sanctions and improved international cooperation (Al Jazeera, 2024). This strategy is crucial for the economic recovery and stability of Iran, as well as for fostering a more stable regional environment (Al Jazeera, 2024; NBC New York, 2024).

Analytical Perspective

Reformist Pezeshkian’s victory is not just a political shift but a potential turning point for Iran’s domestic and international policies (Worldview Stratfor, 2024). His success indicates a demand for change from a significant portion of the electorate, particularly among younger Iranians who are increasingly frustrated with the status quo (Al Jazeera, 2024; NBC New York, 2024). This demographic shift could exert pressure on the incoming administration to adopt more progressive policies (Al Jazeera, 2024; NBC New York, 2024).

The broader implications of this election also extend to Iran’s international standing (Worldview Stratfor, 2024). The direction Iran takes post-election could either escalate tensions with Western countries or pave the way for potential diplomatic engagements (Worldview Stratfor, 2024). The Iranian economy, suffering under stringent sanctions and internal mismanagement, requires comprehensive reforms and international cooperation (Britannica, 2024). Whether Pezeshkian will be capable of steering the country toward stability remains to be seen (Britannica, 2024; Worldview Stratfor, 2024).

Additionally, the social fabric of Iran is under strain (Atlantic Council, 2024). Young Iranians, who make up a significant portion of the population, are increasingly disenchanted with the lack of opportunities (Al Jazeera, 2024; NBC New York, 2024). This demographic shift could exert pressure on the incoming administration to adopt more progressive policies (Atlantic Council, 2024; Al Jazeera, 2024). The societal demands for greater freedoms, gender equality, and economic opportunities are growing louder and cannot be ignored indefinitely (Al Jazeera, 2024; NBC New York, 2024).

Sources and further readings:

Atlantic Council. (2024). Everything you need to know about the six candidates in Iran’s presidential election. Retrieved from https://www.atlanticcouncil.org

Britannica. (2024). Iran’s 2024 presidential election | Candidates, Raisi Death, & Results. Retrieved from https://www.britannica.com

Iran Primer. (2024). Candidates: Iran’s 2024 Presidential Election. Retrieved from https://iranprimer.usip.org

Worldview Stratfor. (2024). Iran: Hardliner Jalili and Reformist Pezeshkian To Compete in July 5 Runoff Presidential Vote. Retrieved from https://worldview.stratfor.com

NBC New York. (2024). Iran faces runoff election between reformist and ultra-conservative. Retrieved from https://www.nbcnewyork.com

Al Jazeera. (2024). Iran heads to presidential run-off on July 5 amid record low turnout. Retrieved from https://www.aljazeera.com