By 
30-07-2024
Giulia Fabrizi
Middle East and Human Rights Researcher
Global Human Rights Defence
In 2024, nearly half of the world’s population (over seventy nations) will have already participated or will soon participate in elections (Robinson, 2024). Among the most awaited ones, the US race for presidency – scheduled for Tuesday, November 5th – has yet to leave the spotlight.
As Joe Biden dropped out from the race on July 21st, cards have been re-shuffled, and in a matter of months former President Donald Trump will likely face current Vice-President Kamala Harris. Among various predictions, to-be-determined policies, and strategies still in the making, what is sure is that whoever wins will have an enormous impact on the ever-evolving events and dynamics of the Middle East. Hence, we will explore the candidates’ different stances on the region’s hot topics.
According to ADC, the country’s largest Arab American organisation, 1.2 million Arab Americans are registered to vote (ADC, 2024). In May, surveys showed Biden at only 7 percent, while Harris has recently polled at 27.5 percent, although still behind Green Party’s Dr. Jill Stein at 45.3 percent. Unsurprisingly, Trump is currently polling at 2 percent only. Overall, since one in four voters is either undecided or inclined not to vote, strategies and targeted campaigns towards the community could leave much room for changes (ADC, 2024).
To start, the most poignant subject within the region is, undoubtedly, the war on Gaza and the potential evolution of the US-Israel relationship.
Former President Donald Trump has firmly been one of Israel’s strongest supporters, as he himself claims. Yet, as analysts underline, such sympathy has come hand in hand with the public bitter criticism of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Salhani, 2024). As Trump is not one to pick “the losing side,” he has critiqued the Israeli PM for his weakness and for allowing October 7th to happen – Eyal Lurie-Pardes comments (Salhani, 2024).
During his previous mandate, Donald Trump had recognised Jerusalem (deemed occupied Palestinian territory by international standards) as Israel’s capital, moving the US Embassy there amid opposition and criticism from the international community (Salhani, 2024). The Tycoon also continues to boast about his role in the renowned Abraham Accords, a success in normalising relations between Israel and some Arab States (mainly UAE and Bahrain) (Salhani, 2024).
Yet, Israel has received imminent and sustained support even without Trump in office: since October 7th in fact, the Biden Administration has backed the Jewish State both diplomatically and militarily, offering billions in military aid by bypassing Congress (Al Jazeera, 2024). Such unconditional support has generated backlash both internationally and domestically, with student protests breaking out in campuses, universities, and large metropolitan areas (Chiaccio, 2024).
With 40 percent of democrats critical of Biden’s policies on Gaza (mainly for not holding Israel accountable and perpetrating “double standards”), and several State Department figures resigning in protest (Salhani, 2024), Harris will need to be careful if she wants to follow Biden’s steps in foreign policy. Fervent backer of Israel throughout her career, Vice President Kamala Harris had even opposed and condemned a Security Council’s resolution that denounced West Bank’s illegal settlements (Harb, 2024).
Although, analysts agree that changes must be made if she is eager to catch Arab Americans’ votes – especially in key swing states (crucial for having a majority in the Electoral College) (Chiaccio, 2024). For instance, Michigan – an extremely relevant swing State with 15 electors – has the highest concentration of Arab Americans, as well as one of the biggest Muslim communities in the country (Chiaccio, 2024).
Surprisingly, the Biden Administration has also left Netanyahu and his allies unsatisfied with the current US line of action, mainly for supporting the establishment of a Palestinian State on the 1967 borders (the so-called “two-state solution”), sanctioning settlements in the West Bank, and pushing against Gaza’s occupation (Noureddine, 2024). On the contrary, a Trump Presidency would not only disregard the 1967 borders and the Palestinian Authority (Noureddine, 2024) but could also provide the conditions for a new settlement campaign in Gaza – helping the current government tone down far-right ministers such as Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, and their ambitions (Salhani, 2024).
Moreover, Biden has also pursued a more conciliatory stance towards Iran, diametrically opposite to Trump’s severe approach, characterised by uncompromising sanctions and by the withdrawal, in 2018, from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal – the long-awaited agreement reached in 2015. At the time, Harris considered this move reckless and pledged, during the 2019 campaign, to rejoin the agreement; she also opposed the assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in 2020 (El-Shinawy, 2024).
Finally, the current administration has been more assertive vis-à-vis Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, expressing concerns for human rights and quarrelling over oil productions (Noureddine, 2024). Trump, on his hand, had been more pragmatic by opening towards the Kingdom and seeking lucrative commercial contracts (Noureddine, 2024).
Analysts are unsure whether Trump will keep his word on the need to withdraw American troops from the region – as Biden has tried to – or will rather boost US presence there to pressure the Iranian regime and hinder its proxies (El-Shinawy, 2024). However, there’s a chance that a Trumpian victory could negatively impact the Saudi-Iran reconciliation process, as well as the overall rapprochement with the Syrian Regime (Noureddine, 2024).
Undoubtedly, the electoral competition will be close, and Arab Americans could truly make a difference, especially considering that four years ago Biden won almost all swing States by merging a diverse pool of voters (Fowler, 2024). Yet, many factors remain to be considered: Trump is ostracised by a large part of society and by factions of his own party, Biden has abruptly left the race, and Harris’ candidacy is still strongly in the shadows of the current administration. To win, she must regain the support of young, progressive, Arabs and Muslims (Lofty, 2024) – but it is also possible that electors will abstain or vote for third-party candidates, creating imbalances and uncertainties between the two main tickets (Chiaccio, 2024).
Sources and Further Reading:
ADC. (2024, July 29). Breaking: Arab American Presidential Survey Results. Accessed on 1 August 2024.https://adc.org/presidentialsurveyjuly27/.
Al Jazeera. (2024, May 15). Biden administration plans to send $1bn in military aid to Israel: Reports. Accessed on 1 August 2024. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/15/us-plans-to-send-1bn-in-new-military-aid-to-israel-reports.
Chiaccio, G. (2024, May 10). The “Muslim factor”, the impact of the Israel-Hamas War on the US presidential elections. Geopolitica.info. Accessed on 1 August 2024. https://www.geopolitica.info/the-impact-of-the-israel-hamas-war-on-the-us-presidential-elections/.
El-Shinawy, M. (2024, August 1). Opinion| Trump vs. Harris: Middle East faces stark choices in upcoming US elections. Daily News Egypt. Accessed on 1 August 2024. https://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2024/07/31/opinion-trump-vs-harris-middle-east-faces-stark-choices-in-upcoming-us-elections/.
Fowler, S. (2024, July 31). Here comes the Sun (Belt): With Harris running, the presidential map has shifted back. npr. Accessed on 1 August 2024. https://www.npr.org/2024/07/31/nx-s1-5056189/kamala-harris-donald-trump-battleground-georgia-rally.
Harb, A. (2024, July 4). Where Biden’s potential Democratic replacements stand on the Gaza war. Al Jazeera. Accessed on 1 August 2024. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/4/where-bidens-potential-democratic-replacements-stand-on-the-gaza-war.
Lofty, M. (2024, July 30). Kamala Harris and the Middle East. Ahramonline. Accessed on 1 August 2024.https://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/50/1203/528168/AlAhram-Weekly/World/Kamala-Harris-and-the-Middle-East.aspx.
Noureddine, A. (2024, March 8). 2024 US Elections’ Impact on Middle East Affairs | Analysis. Fanack.com. Accessed on 1 August 2024. https://fanack.com/politics/features-insights/2024-us-elections-impact-on-middle-east-affairs-analysis~266966/.
Robinson, L. (2024, July 8). At least 70 countries have elections in 2024. A guide in maps and charts. CNN. Accessed on 1 August 2024. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/08/world/global-elections-2024-maps-charts-dg/index.html.
Salhani, J. (2024, July 23). As Trump’s star rises, Netanyahu tries to rekindle old bond on US visit. Al Jazeera. Accessed on 1 August 2024. https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2024/7/23/what-could-a-new-trump-presidency-mean-for-netanyahu.
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