China’s Response to El Niño

08-02-2024

Dara Masita

Human Rights Researcher

Global Human Rights Defence

On top of human-generated climate change, the world’s meteorological condition also depends on El Niño and La Niña. These phenomena occur every few years interchangeably. In 2023 and 2024, the globe is experiencing El Niño, which means that the Earth will be warmer than usual. El Niño happens when the sea surface temperature increases by 0.5˚C compared to the long-term average.^[1] While every country is affected differently by El Niño, this generally means warmer temperatures, less rainfall, and the chances of drought in the Asian region.

With regards to China, according to the National Climate Center in Beijing, El Niño normally brings more rainfall to the Southern part and warmer temperatures to the Northern part. The presence of El Niño leads to harsher summers and winters, which will increase power demands and food insecurity. Previously, due to the power demands, China had to ration power and reduce industrial activities. Industries that utilise significant electricity and water resources (e.g. textile, construction, automotive) experienced a downward trend in productivity due to this power rationing.

In addition to the power demands, China – the country with the most mouths to feed – has food security as its primary concern due to the inconsistent weather conditions. In 1997, maize production decreased by 15.7 percent, while in 2009, it only decreased by 5.3 percent.^[2] This shows that El Niño has been reducing harvest yields, but China has been keeping up to minimise its losses through agricultural infrastructure development.

Nevertheless, China is also the world’s biggest food importer. China has experienced a slight threat to food security during the Ukraine-Russia war and the US-China trade war.^[3] Furthermore, China’s imports from Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand and Indonesia would also be affected during this El Niño season as these countries are more vulnerable to severe drought.

The Chinese constitution does not explicitly guarantee the right to adequate food, even though China has ratified the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights which includes the right to adequate food. Nevertheless, the famines of the 1950s and 1960s are still etched into the nation’s memory, which prompted the Chinese government to prepare measures to combat food insecurity. Xi Jin Ping is on the move to increase farmlands by providing subsidised land to farmers in an effort to become a more self-sufficient state. Moreover, the Chinese government is aiming to diversify crops to be less dependent on rainfall. Additionally, they invested $15.5 billion in water conservation to ensure water access amid unpredictable climate patterns.

Overall, El Niño’s impact has been devastating to many countries. The main concern for China is food security in light of fluctuating rainfall patterns. However, the Chinese government has been developing solutions that promote self-sufficiency to keep its citizens’ bowls full. The Chinese adaptation to the changing weather patterns not only highlights their ability to withstand El Niño but also the upcoming human-induced climate change.

Sources and further readings:

ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre, ‘Seasonal Outlook’ (ASMC ASEAN, 2024) <https://asmc.asean.org/asmc-el-nino/#:~:text=The%20typical%20impact%20of%20El,conditions%20typically%20follow%20drier%20periods.> accessed 8 February 2024.

Economic Intelligence, ‘El Niño: South and South-east Asia’s 2023 wild card’ (EIU, 2023) <https://www.eiu.com/n/el-nino-south-and-south-east-asias-2023-wild-card/> accessed 5 February 2024.

Food and Agricultural Organization, ‘The Right to Food Around the Globe: China’ (FAO) <https://www.fao.org/right-to-food-around-the-globe/countries/chn/en/> accessed 5 February 2024.

International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (adopted 16 December 1966, entered into force 3 January 1976) 933 UNTS 13 (ICESCR).

Jitsiree Thongnoi, ‘LESSONS FROM VIETNAM AS EL NIÑO HITS SOUTHEAST ASIA’ (FairPlanet, 2023) <https://www.fairplanet.org/editors-pick/vietnam-el-nino-southeast-asia/> accessed 7 February 2024.

Li Hongyang, ‘2023 Could Be the Warmest Year  Since 1850 Due to El Niño’ (China Daily, 2023) <https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202311/15/WS65540667a31090682a5ee243.html#:~:text=Speaking%20on%20the%20impact%20on,above%20normal%20precipitation%20in%20China> accessed 6 February 2024.

Lin Ganfeng, ‘To Increase Food Security, China Expands Farmland’ (VOA, 2023) <https://www.voanews.com/a/to-increase-food-security-china-expands-farmland/7237866.html> accessed 8 February 2024.

Met Office, ‘What are El Niño and La Niña’ (Met Office) <https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/oceans/el-nino> accessed 6 February 2024.

Rosa Li, ‘Ask the Analyst: Will El Nino Affect China Sugar and Grains?’ (czapp, 2023) <https://www.czapp.com/analyst-insights/ask-the-analyst-will-el-nino-affect-china-sugar-and-grains/> accessed 8 February 2024.

Universal Declaration of Human Rights (adopted 10 December 1948) UNGA Res 217 A(III) (UDHR).